Analysis | Why Massie is key in the effort to depose Johnson (2024)

Here we go again.

Never had the House ousted its speaker until Republicans deposed Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in October. Now, there’s a chance they’ll do it again — barely six months later.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) effort to oust Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) seemed silly and unlikely just days ago. Greene had fallen out of favor with the far-right House Freedom Caucus and doesn’t have many allies. On Friday, former president Donald Trump stood next to Johnson and said he supported him.

Many thought that event gave Johnson a lifeline.

But Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has upended that.

At Tuesday morning’s closed-door Republican conference meeting, Massie announced that he had signed on to Greene’s motion to vacate Johnson as House speaker after Johnson proposed funding aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan with no border-security provisions.

That turned heads for multiple reasons.

Republicans are now taking Greene’s effort seriously.

On the one hand, Massie’s support moves Greene one vote closer to being able to vacate Johnson. She now only needs one more vote in their narrow two-seat majority unless Democrats come to his rescue. (They have said they will if Johnson puts a bill similar to the Senate-passed bill with funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan on the floor for a vote.)

But Massie’s support is significant in another way, too.

Republicans mostly dismissed the motion to vacate because Trump, who is worried about GOP chaos six months before the election, stood with Johnson at Mar-a-Lago last week and said he supports the speaker.

Republicans were skeptical that Greene would cross Trump — and Republicans frustrated with Johnson didn’t want to cross Trump, either.

Massie is, in some ways, immune to pressure from Trump. He’s not particularly close with him. He cares little about what Trump thinks and the former president doesn’t influence his actions or his votes. So a call from Trump would probably do little to dissuade him from voting to oust Johnson.

As recently as last Congress, both Massie and Greene were outsiders looking in.

Massie, a libertarian who opposes nearly all government spending bills, is one of only a handful of Republicans who joined no conference or faction. He was a happy lone warrior warning his colleagues about the rising debt. Greene, a firebrand whose goal was to buck the establishment and promote Trump, was kicked off committees by Democrats and shunned by Republicans.

McCarthy knew he needed them both if he was going to survive as speaker and pass legislation. He successfully brought both of them into the fold, giving Massie a spot on the Rules Committee, a position of leadership allies, and using Greene as an informal adviser. His actions turned them into team players who defended McCarthy during his ouster.

Johnson, however, has failed to build a strong relationship with them. And now they could lead his political demise.

Massie says the motion to vacate “will happen” and has predicted that more than eight Republicans will support it, which would make it more popular than the effort by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) to oust McCarthy. (Only Greene can trigger the motion, because she filed it.)

If Democrats come to Johnson’s aid, Massie and other Republicans predict that Johnson will lose even more Republicans.

As one Republican aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they aren’t authorized to speak on the record, put it: Republicans can't go home in an election year and say they voted with Democrats to save the speaker.

But not all Republicans are happy with Massie.

“I like Marjorie, I like Tom Massie. I think it’s dead wrong. It’s not what motion to vacate was designed for,” Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.) said. “It’s designed for if there’s a scandal, if there is some crime, something that clearly shows that person is not capable or doesn’t belong in that position. Not this. Not someone being so deliberative and working as hard as he can.”

As our colleague Marianna Sotomayor writes with Leigh Ann, “no one seems to have a clear idea of who could garner enough support to replace him. But the gamesmanship behind the scenes has begun among House members and their allies as people start to position themselves should the speaker’s chair become vacant.”

Rep. Troy E. Nehls (R-Tex.), a member of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus, voiced the concern of many conservatives if Johnson is tossed aside: “If it’s not him, then who can manage this conference?”

As for an alternative, Massie insists there are “a dozen [people] who think they’re great for the job.” (He didn’t name names.)

“My standards have lowered,” he said.

Meanwhile, the House is in a waiting game.

Johnson spent the evening huddling with at least a handful of Republicans who want to pass the national security bill, searching for a way to craft a bill that would gain the support of all Republicans. But they haven’t come to any solution and the text of his four-part plan, which Johnson said would be released Tuesday, is in limbo.

Thanks to our fabulous colleague Marianna Sotomayor for her help reporting.

The Senate will begin the impeachment trial of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas at 1 p.m. today. All senators have to be at their desks to begin the proceedings.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) will swear in President Pro Tempore Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.). Murray will then administer the oath to all senators, then four at a time they will sign the oath book.

The sergeant-at-arms will proclaim: “Hear ye! Hear ye! Hear ye! All persons are commanded to keep silence on pain of imprisonment, while the House of Representatives is exhibiting to the Senate of the United States the article of impeachment against Alejandro N. Mayorkas, secretary of Homeland Security.”

A group of Republicans led by Sen. Mike Lee (Utah) are expected to raise multiple points of order to delay the proceedings and draw attention to the challenges at the border.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is expected today to dispense with the process before the substance of the trial truly begins either by moving to a vote to table or one to dismiss. (Tabling would mean there is no debate on the measure and dismiss would allow debate.)

Columbia University leaders will face intense grilling from lawmakers today over the university’s response to campus antisemitism in the wake of the Israel-Gaza war.

The hearing comes months after the presidents of MIT, Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania testified in December before the Republican-led House Committee on Education and the Workforce on antisemitism on college campuses. One of the presidents who testified — Penn President Liz Magill — resigned from her post in the days following the contentious congressional hearing and another, Harvard President Claudine Gay, resigned earlier this year following plagiarism charges.

NEW: “GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy apologized and asked for leniency in 2015 after he said a gun he kept in his vehicle for bear protection fell and discharged, striking him in his right forearm in Glacier National Park, according to new National Park Service documents released through a Freedom of Information Act request,” our colleague Liz Goodwin reports.

“The new documents, which provide additional detail about an incident first reported by The Washington Post earlier this month, include a detailed written statement from Sheehy to a law enforcement officer regarding accidentally shooting himself on Oct. 18, 2015 — an account that he now says was a lie.”

“Sheehy, who has told voters he has a bullet in his arm from his time serving in Afghanistan, says he made up the 2015 accidental gunshot story on that October day to cover up a wound he says he received in a 2012 firefight in Afghanistan,” Liz writes.

Happening today: “Biden plans to unveil on Wednesday a series of new protections for the U.S. steel industry, as he moves to combat what the White House calls ‘unfair’ Chinese competition and shore up his political fortunes in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Ohio,” our colleague David J. Lynch reports.

Seven New Yorkers were sworn in as jurors Tuesday in the historic criminal trial of former president Donald Trump. They make up more than a third of the total number of people needed to hold a trial with a full jury and six alternates. Prosecutors and defense attorneys will need to seat 11 more panelists — but that won’t happen today. Court is adjourned until Thursday.

New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan said opening statements could begin as soon as Monday.

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A plot twist so shocking, Jesse Armstrong had to have written it